4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 3 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 39-L.Hedley punts 44 yards to MIN 26, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 4-B.Powell. PENALTY on NO-49-Z.Wood, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model