4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 36

New Orleans Saints 3 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to MIN 34 for 2 yards (97-H.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.65 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model