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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 27 – New Orleans Saints 11

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.77 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model