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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 44

Minnesota Vikings 27 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 14-R.Wright punts 37 yards to NO 7, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.23 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model