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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 27 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(5:01) 14-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NO 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.90 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model