Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 27 – New Orleans Saints 19

(:15) 14-R.Wright punts 38 yards to NO 40, Center-42-A.DePaola. 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at MIN 48 for 12 yards (44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP

73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.00 EP
27% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -1.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model