4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 14-R.Wright punts 50 yards to NO 24, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 32, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model