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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 30

New Orleans Saints 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(1:23) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model