Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:49) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to SF 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 3-R.McCloud to SF 43 for 8 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model