Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 57

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(12:08) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 56 yards to JAX 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-38-S.Jean-Charles.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.93 EP
71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model