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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 10-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.97 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model