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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 17

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(:03) 4-J.Moody 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.34 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 17, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model