Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(14:22) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left intended for 13-C.Kirk INTERCEPTED by 54-F.Warner [98-J.Hargrave] at SF 38. 54-F.Warner pushed ob at JAX 40 for 22 yards (1-T.Etienne).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.11 EP
74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.03 EP