Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 89

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – San Francisco 49ers 34

(1:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 62 yards to SF 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 10-R.Bell to SF 35 for 8 yards (26-A.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.23 EP
49% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 89, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model