4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 21

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 4-J.Moody 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.26 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model