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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 12-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 82-S.Sims to HOU 26 for 8 yards (45-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.68 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model