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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 1

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 1, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model