Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 83

Houston Texans 21 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to ARI 39, Center-46-J.Weeks. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 46 for 7 yards (43-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on ARI-13-K.Clark, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.91 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model