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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 23

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(12:54) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 83-G.Dortch to HOU 21 for 2 yards (4-T.Thomas; 24-D.Stingley).

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.28 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model