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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 69

Houston Texans 21 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to ARI 19, Center-46-J.Weeks. 33-A.Hamilton MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by HOU-20-K.Hollman at ARI 25. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.68 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 27, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP