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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(7:22) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short middle to 85-T.McBride.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.76 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model