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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 39

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.10 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model