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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 13

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 8-C.Santos 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.21 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 13, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model