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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 52

Detroit Lions 14 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to CHI 15, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.14 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model