Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 78

Detroit Lions 14 – Chicago Bears 23

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to CHI 18, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 31 for 13 yards (44-M.Rodriguez). PENALTY on CHI-39-J.Blackwell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at CHI 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model