Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 74

Chicago Bears 26 – Detroit Lions 21

(2:44) 16-T.Gill punts 47 yards to DET 27, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 74, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model