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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 53

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to GB 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-J.Reed to GB 19 for 7 yards (33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.42 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.98 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model