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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(:11) 17-A.Carlson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +4.29 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model