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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 11-C.Dicker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model