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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 19-D.Whelan punts 39 yards to LAC 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.89 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model