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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 92

Green Bay Packers 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 19-D.Whelan punts 61 yards to LAC 31, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-D.Davis to LAC 37 for 6 yards (39-Z.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -3.50 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.32 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 92, worth -5.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 50, worth -2.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model