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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 53

Green Bay Packers 23 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 19-D.Whelan punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.51 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model