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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 68

Denver Broncos 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to MIN 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 4-B.Powell to MIN 29 for 4 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model