4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 16

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 1-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.53 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model