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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 19

Denver Broncos 9 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 16-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 19, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model