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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 29

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Denver Broncos 15

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 15-J.Dobbs up the middle to DEN 27 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.24 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model