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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(:43) 15-J.Dobbs up the middle to MIN 36 for 2 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.60 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -2.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model