Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 14-R.Wright punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.14 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.89 EP

KICK -1.14 EP

40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
60% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model