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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 72

Denver Broncos 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to MIN 23, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 4-B.Powell to MIN 35 for 12 yards (40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.67 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP