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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 34

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(10:18) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito pass incomplete short left to 18-I.Hodgins. WAS-13-E.Forbes was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. WAS 13 - Elbow injury

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.62 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -2.10 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model