Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 71

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 7

(8:53) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to NYG 31, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 38 for 7 yards (32-T.Burgess).

The Three Options

GO -2.14 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.55 EP
73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model