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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 18

New York Giants 21 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 46-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.32 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model