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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 60

Washington Commanders 12 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(4:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 8-B.Robinson to NYG 39 for 21 yards (44-N.McCloud).

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.05 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 19, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.75 EP