4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Giants 24 – Washington Commanders 19

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 6-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to WAS 19, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 83-J.Crowder ran ob at WAS 19 for no gain (44-N.McCloud).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.15 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP