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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 5

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 6-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.22 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 5, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP