Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 80

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(13:39) 5-T.Townsend punts 37 yards to PHI 43, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 80, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model