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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to KC 34, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney to PHI 45 for 21 yards (21-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model