Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(13:10) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to KC 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 19-K.Toney to KC 21 for 10 yards (57-B.VanSumeren).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 74, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model