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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 57

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 5-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to PHI 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.69 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP