Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(7:11) 5-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to PHI 13, Center-41-J.Winchester. 18-B.Covey to PHI 39 for 26 yards (54-L.Chenal).

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.11 EP
58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model